Proposition 13: The Predictive Power of Demographics in Direct Democracy

Thesis advisor: Richard McGowanProposition 13 revolutionized local politics in California when it stated that any future increase in taxes or tax rates would require a vote of two-thirds of the electors in any given local jurisdiction. Since California is the sixth largest economy in the world and exhibits tremendous economic and demographic variation, this study seeks to determine what characteristics of a county can be used to predict whether or not a local ballot initiative will pass. In addition, this study attempts to determine whether there is a distinction between the predictive value of demographic variables for transportation, education, safety, and facilities initiatives. This report reveals that greater wealth within a county is associated with a greater likelihood of an initiative passing, although at a decreasing rate. The data also suggests that a greater percentage of nonwhites in a county is correlated with an initiative passing. In counties with larger elderly populations, initiatives are less likely to pass. Furthermore, the data indicates that the impact of demographics varies for transportation, education, safety, and facilities initiatives.Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2005.Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences.Discipline: Economics.Discipline: College Honors Program