The Euro as an International Currency: An Evaluation of the Challenge to the Dollar Based on Currency Reserves and the Exchange Rate

Thesis advisor: Matteo IacovielloSince its launch, the euro has successfully achieved the status of an international currency, and the prospect of its ability to challenge the dollar is increasingly credible. This paper supplements the ongoing academic discussion by reevaluating the characteristics necessary for such a position in light of the most recent information available on the euro area, and then providing econometric evidence as support. I regress the lags of shares of dollar and euro reserves on the current shares and predict steady state values for each currency. I then regress the same lags, as well as the exchange rate lag, on the change in the euro/dollar exchange rate. I find, first, that the share of euro reserves, while still not as high as the share of dollars, is nonetheless significant: about 26%. Second, the euro/dollar exchange rate is only slightly affected by changes in the share of either currency's reserves. I conclude that confidence in the euro as an alternative international currency is growing, and that the euro has become a real challenge to the dollar.Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2007.Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences.Discipline: Economics.Discipline: College Honors Program