Arctic Conflicts : A study of geopolitical relations and potential conflicts in the High North

The IPCC report from 2013 predicts radical temperature changes in the world the coming years, with a melting ice cap in the Arctic as consequence. According to geological research made by institutes and scholars from the Arctic states the Arctic is likely to hold the last remaining oil and gas resources of the world. The melting ice cap opens up for resource exploitation and for new naval transportation routes between Asia and Europe and North America. There is a debate over what geopolitical implications these natural resources and the new transportation routes will get for the surrounding Arctic states since the existing international regulations in some areas are inadequate. This debate is divided into two camps; one side argues that the Arctic states will act cooperatively when exploiting the resources and navigating the new transportation routes, while the other side predicts violent and conflictive state behavior. The objective of this study is to analyze existing and potential conflicts in the Arctic through the perspective of leading international relations theories in order to make projections of potential Arctic developments. As analytical tool the study applies a conflict analysis framework to structure and categorize both the findings and the analytical chapter. In this qualitative and abductive study the data has been collected through mainly official state and private documents and text analysis of these documents have been used as method. The study concludes that a combination of both cooperation and competition is likely to occur in the Arctic in future, but cooperation will be the first alternative of choice for states rather than conflict