Earnings Information Conveyed By Dividend Policy

It is known that managers know more about their firm’s true financial health than shareholders do. Therefore, dividend policy may be of consequence if changes in dividend payments are used to convey information that is not otherwise known to the market. This study examines whether managers of Thai firms convey information about future earnings through dividend policy. It also documents investor reaction to dividend changes. Using financial data during 1994-2008, the sample includes 76 firms that omitted dividend payments for the first time, or after paying continuously for at least three years. It also includes 78 firms that paid no dividends for at least three years preceding the announcement of the initial dividend. The null hypothesis that average earnings changes are zero was tested with Dunnett’s C (Post Hoc) test. The results provide evidence that management signals earnings information content through dividend omission policy. Firms that omit dividends have earnings declines prior to the dividend date; the omission firms’ earnings recover for one year afterward. However, there is no support for dividend initiation helping to identify firms with superior future profitability. The results demonstrate that the market reaction to dividend omissions and initiations are statistically insignificant, suggesting that these earnings changes are anticipated when the dividend is announced