SITTING OUTSIDE THE NETWORK: REASSURING THE STABILITY OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT UNDER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

Abstract: The US security policy toward East Asia since Obama administration’s policy of “Pivot” had transformed its security partnership with the East Asia allies. The US moved away from the hierarchical relationship where it maintained close bilateral cooperation with each country and moved toward an interconnected security network that requires a substantive contribution from allies. Though this security network is not a collective defense system, the US expected its allies, Japan in particular, to expand their roles on regional security. Cross-alliance cooperation is expected be more frequent. Taiwan is excluded from this transformation due to its unique political dispute with China. This articler argues that the emerging security network in East Asia has an unintended consequence: It increases the risk of armed conflict in Taiwan Strait because the US will find it difficult to convince China that its allies will not be involved in Taiwan Strait. The conclusion suggest that the US and its allies can take several steps to credibly reassure China as the US strengthens relations with its security partners