Climate suitability and model prediction of the invasion probability under various climate scenarios.

<p>Potentially favourable areas according to normal temperatures over 1951–1980 (dark red), and 3°C of temperature increase (dark+light red is the potential expansion area) (Panel A). White dots represent locations already infested. Invasion probability predicted by the dispersal model: in 2005 (Panel B), in 2025 under the assumption of a stable climate (Panel C), and in 2025 under the assumption of a constant warming (+0.03°C/yr) (Panel D). White dots represent locations infested until 2005, and in Panel A, white dots with a black point inside represent infested locations where the predicted invasion probability in 2005 is zero.