Are there any ‘bright’ spots and ‘hot’ spots of rice water productivity in Bangladesh? A spatio-temporal analysis of district-level data

This paper employs Bangladeshi district-level time series data to: (1) estimate average (AP) and marginal (MP) water productivity measures for rabi (dry), kharif (wet) and annual rice crops; (2) undertake a spatio-temporal analysis; and (3) identify ‘bright’ (top quartile) and ‘hot’ (bottom quartile) spots focusing on the Ganges-dependent (GDA). This is the first study of its kind on water productivity. Kharif season AP grew much faster than the rabi season AP in all districts. Ganges dependent districts taken together experienced faster growth rates in kharif and annual productivity but their rabi season performance was slower than those in the remaining districts. MP experienced fastest growth for the kharif season during the 1968-1980 period. Its growth rate declined in the 1980s but picked up since the early 1990s. MPs were lower in the GDA districts for kharif and annual rice crops. ‘Bright’ or ‘hot’ spots were not invariant with rice crops. Rice production in Bangladesh has been a highly groundwater-dependent and fossil fuel-using process. It is debatable whether this phenomenal dependence on groundwater irrigation is sustainable. Productivity bright spots might in the long run turn into environmental hot spots