Contact tracing and chain size analysis of monkeypox data.

<p>A) Ninety percent confidence regions for and inference are shown for monkeypox data gathered between 1980 and 1984 in the Democratic Republic of Congo <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002993#pcbi.1002993-Fine1" target="_blank">[26]</a>, <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002993#pcbi.1002993-Jezek2" target="_blank">[27]</a>. The two confidence regions are based on the same set of data. The chain size analysis is based on the number of cases in isolated outbreaks of monkeypox, whereas the contact tracing data are based on the number of transmission events caused by each case. The black cross hairs indicate the previously reported 90% confidence intervals for monkeypox transmission parameters based on the first generation of transmission in this data set [, ] <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002993#pcbi.1002993-LloydSmith2" target="_blank">[24]</a>. B) Model predictions for the chain size distribution based on three different values of , including the ML value of that is based on contact tracing data. A subset of the chain size data consisting of only those chains having exactly one identified primary infection is shown for comparison to model predictions. When the two-parameter ML value for the contact tracing data is compared to the likelihoods of the and models, the scores for the latter models are 4.3 and 23.3 respectively.