Analysis of risk score discrimination and optimal cut-off for invasive model disease risk.

<p>(a) Receiver-operator curve (ROC) analysis plot of the true positives plotted as a function of the false-positives (100-specificity) at different cutoffs of the risk score. Gray bands represent the 95% CI of the plot. The dotted line represents a reference line no discrimination for invasive mold disease (aROC=0.5). The <i>P</i> value is the probability that the aROC differs significantly from aROC=0.5; (b) Plot of sensitivity and specificity versus risk score. The highest sensitivity (true positive rate) and specificity (true negative rate) meet at a score just below 6, suggesting a criterion value of > 6.