Conceptual models of the illegal ivory trade and seizures data.

<p>(A) In each county, in each year an unknown proportion (seizure rate) of illegal ivory transactions (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0076539#pone-0076539-g001" target="_blank">Figure 1B</a> for examples) is seized. Of these seizures an unknown proportion (reporting rate) are reported to ETIS. We identify potential predictors that discriminate different countries ability to make and report seizures so that we can obtain relative estimates of seizure and reporting rates and the numbers of illegal ivory transactions. <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0076539#pone.0076539.s001" target="_blank">Figure S1</a> shows the predictors of seizure and reporting rate identified by the modelling exercise described in this paper. (B) Flow of ivory from source to point of sale representing different types of illegal ivory transactions. Circles represent individual countries along the trade chain. Raw ivory obtained from illegally killed elephants (or stolen from stockpiles of ivory) is put together into a shipment – this ivory may be sourced from several countries. Shipments might pass through a number of countries before arriving at ivory processing plants. Once the ivory is processed into worked ivory it is put into a shipment (again this ivory may come from several ivory processing plants in different countries and from stockpiles) and could pass through several countries before arriving at wholesale or retail places. Once there, it will likely be sold to individuals, locals or tourists, and could pass through several more countries before reaching its final destination. Seizures can occur all along this trade chain and seized ivory should pass to the ivory stockpiles which also includes ivory from natural elephant mortality in range States. There is evidence that ivory sometimes re-enters the trade chain from unsecured ivory stockpiles <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0076539#pone.0076539-Milliken5" target="_blank">[45]</a>. The whole, or parts, of the trade chain for any single piece of ivory could occur in one country, one region or across the globe.