Predicted impact of universal testing and immediate ART for all HIV-infected patients (UTT) on HIV prevalence and incidence in adults (aged 15+ y) for four main models of the South African HIV epidemic over the period 1990–2050.

<p>Left panels: HIV prevalence; right panels: HIV incidence. All models are structurally different. Solid lines represent the impact of the UTT intervention; the dashed lines represent the no-UTT counterfactual. Colored lines are the average result of 1,000 simulations, and the gray areas represent the probability intervals illustrating 95% of the stochastic variation around the baseline estimate. UTT is implemented as annual screening of the adult population (aged 15+ y), and immediate ART for all HIV-infected patients. The intervention is scaled up linearly, starting in 2012 and reaching 90% coverage in 2019 (similar to Granich et al. <a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001534#pmed.1001534-Granich1" target="_blank">[9]</a>). The vertical dotted lines give the timing of the start of the intervention. The horizontal dotted lines in the right panels indicate the elimination phase, defined as incidence below 1/1,000 person-years. Structures and components of the different models are explained in <a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001534#pmed-1001534-g001" target="_blank">Figure 1</a>.