Photovoltaic Capacity Additions: The Optimal Rate of Deployment with Sensitivity to Time-Based GHG Emissions

<p>Environmental impact assessments of photovoltaic (PV) deployments are based on the assumption that the environmental benefits can be allocated at the time of installation. However, benefits do not accrue immediately after installation but accrue over the entire life cycle of the PV module. There is an inter-temporal trade-off which depends on the magnitude of upfront PV manufacturing GHG emissions and the year-on-year GHGs avoided when PV electricity displaces electricity generated from fossil fuels. Moreover, environmental impact assessments of PV systems precludes temporally sensitive technology factors which impact the environmental benefits allocated to a PV depending on the year of installation. These factors include: the varying rates of technology improvements for different PV technologies, electricity mixes of the deployment location and location where PV systems are manufactured. By not incorporating inter-temporal trade-off analysis and temporally sensitive technology factors that influence net environmental impacts of PV deployments, PV capacity additions can inadvertently become counter-productive by increasing net GHG emissions over the short term.<br>This project designs and implements an optimization model to minimize the short term environmental impacts of PV system deployments by incorporating the inter-temporal trade-offs involved. When integrated with PV LCAs this model can help policy makers to minimize short term impacts along with fulfilling long term renewable energy policy goals. The results show that the optimal PV deployment strategy for the three states - California, Wyoming and Arizona - varies depending on the electricity mixes of these states. The optimal PV deployment strategy is sensitive to the state of technology and the choice of PV technology to fulfill the targets. Also, adopting an sub-optimal PV deployment strategy to meet California's PV policy targets by<br>importing Silicon PV modules from China will increase the CO2 emissions over the short term.