Estimated transmission patterns through time.

<p>Lines show the MLE, and shaded regions show the 95% credible interval. (A) Estimated number of transmissions originating from individuals in different stages of infection: EHI, chronic infection, and AIDS. (B) The estimated fraction of transmissions attributable to EHI, chronic infection, and AIDS. (C) Estimated number of transmissions originating from diagnosed and undiagnosed individuals through time. (D) The estimated fraction of transmissions attributable to diagnosed and undiagnosed infections through time. Estimated credible intervals reflect the fit of a single model to the data and do not incorporate uncertainty due to model misspecification error.