Global atmospheric change effects on terrestrial carbon sequestration: Exploration with a global C- and N-cycle model (CQUESTN)

A model of the interacting global carbon and nitrogen cycles (CQUESTN) is developed to explore the possible history of C-sequestration into the terrestrial biosphere in response to the global increases (past and possible future) in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and N-deposition. The model is based on published estimates of pre-industrial C and N pools and fluxes into vegetation, litter and soil compartments. It was found necessary to assign low estimates of N pools and fluxes to be compatible with the more firmly established C-cycle data. Net primary production was made responsive to phytomass N level, and to CO2 and temperature deviation from preindustrial values with sensitivities covering the ranges in the literature. Biological N-fixation could be made either unresponsive to soil C:N ratio, or could act to tend to restore the preindustrial C:N of humus with different N-fixation intensities. As for all such simulation models, uncertainties in both data and functional relationships render it more useful for qualitative evaluation than for quantitative prediction. With the N-fixation response turned off, the historic CO2 increase led to standard-model sequestration into terrestrial ecosystems in 1995AD of 1.8 Ct C yr(-1). With N-fixation restoring humus C:N strongly, C sequestration was 3 Ct yr(-1) in 1995. In both cases C:N of phytomass and litter increased with time and these increases were plausible when compared with experimental data on CO2 effects. The temperature increase also caused net C sequestration in the model biosphere because decrease in soil organic matter was more than offset by the increase in phytomass deriving from the extra N mineralised. For temperature increase to reduce system C pool size, the biosphere ''leakiness'' to N would have to increase substantially with temperature. Assuming a constant N-loss coefficient, the historic temperature increase alone caused standard-model net C sequestration to be about 0.6 Gt C in 1995. Given the disparity of plant and microbial C:N, the modelled impact of anthropogenic N-deposition on C-sequestration depends substantially on whether the deposited N is initially taken up by plants or by soil microorganisms. Assuming the latter, standard-model net sequestration in 1995 was 0.2 Ct C in 1995 from the N-deposition effect alone. Combining the effects of the historic courses of CO2, temperature and N-deposition, the standard-model gave C-sequestration of 3.5 Ct in 1995. This involved an assumed weak response of biological N-fixation to the increased carbon status of the ecosystem. For N-fixation to track ecosystem C-fixation in the long term however, more phosphorus must enter the biological cycle. New experimental evidence shows that plants in elevated CO2 have the capacity to mobilize more phosphorus from so-called ''unavailable'' sources using mechanisms involving exudation of organic acids and phosphatases