Advanced Computational Methods for Power System Data Analysis in an Electricity Market

The power industry has undergone significant restructuring throughout the world since the 1990s. In particular, its traditional, vertically monopolistic structures have been reformed into competitive markets in pursuit of increased efficiency in electricity production and utilization. However, along with market deregulation, power systems presently face severe challenges. One is power system stability, a problem that has attracted widespread concern because of severe blackouts experienced in the USA, the UK, Italy, and other countries. Another is that electricity market operation warrants more effective planning, management, and direction techniques due to the ever expanding large-scale interconnection of power grids. Moreover, many exterior constraints, such as environmental protection influences and associated government regulations, now need to be taken into consideration. All these have made existing challenges even more complex. One consequence is that more advanced power system data analysis methods are required in the deregulated, market-oriented environment. At the same time, the computational power of modern computers and the application of databases have facilitated the effective employment of new data analysis techniques. In this thesis, the reported research is directed at developing computational intelligence based techniques to solve several power system problems that emerge in deregulated electricity markets. Four major contributions are included in the thesis: a newly proposed quantum-inspired particle swarm optimization and self-adaptive learning scheme for radial basis function neural networks; online wavelet denoising techniques; electricity regional reference price forecasting methods in the electricity market; and power system security assessment approaches for deregulated markets, including fault analysis, voltage profile prediction under contingencies, and machine learning based load shedding scheme for voltage stability enhancement. Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) inspired by biological evolution mechanisms have had great success in power system stability analysis and operation planning. Here, a new quantum-inspired particle swarm optimization (QPSO) is proposed. Its inspiration stems from quantum computation theory, whose mechanism is totally different from those of original EAs. The benchmark data sets and economic load dispatch research results show that the QPSO improves on other versions of evolutionary algorithms in terms of both speed and accuracy. Compared to the original PSO, it greatly enhances the searching ability and efficiently manages system constraints. Then, fuzzy C-means (FCM) and QPSO are applied to train radial basis function (RBF) neural networks with the capacity to auto-configure the network structures and obtain the model parameters. The benchmark data sets test results suggest that the proposed training algorithms ensure good performance on data clustering, also improve training and generalization capabilities of RBF neural networks. Wavelet analysis has been widely used in signal estimation, classification, and compression. Denoising with traditional wavelet transforms always exhibits visual artefacts because of translation-variant. Furthermore, in most cases, wavelet denoising of real-time signals is actualized via offline processing which limits the efficacy of such real-time applications. In the present context, an online wavelet denoising method using a moving window technique is proposed. Problems that may occur in real-time wavelet denoising, such as border distortion and pseudo-Gibbs phenomena, are effectively solved by using window extension and window circle spinning methods. This provides an effective data pre-processing technique for the online application of other data analysis approaches. In a competitive electricity market, price forecasting is one of the essential functions required of a generation company and the system operator. It provides critical information for building up effective risk management plans by market participants, especially those companies that generate and retail electrical power. Here, an RBF neural network is adopted as a predictor of the electricity market regional reference price in the Australian national electricity market (NEM). Furthermore, the wavelet denoising technique is adopted to pre-process the historical price data. The promising network prediction performance with respect to price data demonstrates the efficiency of the proposed method, with real-time wavelet denoising making feasible the online application of the proposed price prediction method. Along with market deregulation, power system security assessment has attracted great concern from both academic and industry analysts, especially after several devastating blackouts in the USA, the UK, and Russia. This thesis goes on to propose an efficient composite method for cascading failure prevention comprising three major stages. Firstly, a hybrid method based on principal component analysis (PCA) and specific statistic measures is used to detect system faults. Secondly, the RBF neural network is then used for power network bus voltage profile prediction. Tests are carried out by means of the “N-1” and “N-1-1” methods applied in the New England power system through PSS/E dynamic simulations. Results show that system faults can be reliably detected and voltage profiles can be correctly predicted. In contrast to traditional methods involving phase calculation, this technique uses raw data from time domains and is computationally inexpensive in terms of both memory and speed for practical applications. This establishes a connection between power system fault analysis and cascading analysis. Finally, a multi-stage model predictive control (MPC) based load shedding scheme for ensuring power system voltage stability is proposed. It has been demonstrated that optimal action in the process of load shedding for voltage stability during emergencies can be achieved as a consequence. Based on above discussions, a framework for analysing power system voltage stability and ensuring its enhancement is proposed, with such a framework able to be used as an effective means of cascading failure analysis. In summary, the research reported in this thesis provides a composite framework for power system data analysis in a market environment. It covers advanced techniques of computational intelligence and machine learning, also proposes effective solutions for both the market operation and the system stability related problems facing today’s power industry