Competing scenarios considered in the ABC analysis of IAEA colony past demography (analysis 3).

<p>The demography of the Busia and Rukomeshi populations was determined as described in <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002697#pntd.0002697.s003" target="_blank">Supplementary file S2</a>. In all scenarios, the two potential source populations merged <i>T_anc.</i> ago into an unsampled ancestral population and a bottleneck started in Busia in 1991 and lasted <i>BD</i>_cont. generations. Scenario 4, 5 and 6 are respectively variations of scenarios 1, 2 and 3 in which a genetic bottleneck (of duration <i>BD</i>_col.Bus. or <i>BD</i>_col.Ruk.) is associated with the laboratory colonisation. In scenarios 1, 2, 4 and 5 the IAEA colony has a single population of origin. In scenarios 1 and 4, the IAEA colony was founded from the Busia population in 1975 while in scenarios 2 and 5, it was founded from the Rukomeshi population <i>T_col.Ruk.</i> generations ago. In scenario 3 and 6 the IAEA colony originates from an admixture between unsampled colonies of Busia and Rukomeshi origin that were respectively founded from the Busia population in 1975 and from the Rukomeshi population <i>T_col.Ruk.</i> generations ago. When admixture occurs, the admixture rate <i>ar</i> is the proportion from unsampled Busia colony that contributed to the admixed IAEA colony.