Neighbourhood Watch: The evolving terrorist threat in Southeast Asia

The regional terrorist threat remains high on the list of Australia’s national security priorities. But the absence of a major bombing campaign in recent years has prompted some commentators to argue that we have seen the end of jihadist violence in Southeast Asia. Nearly six years after the first Bali bombings, it is time to take stock of the regional security environment and to ask how the Southeast Asian terrorist threat might evolve in the future. Neighbourhood Watch analyses the changing nature of religious militancy across Southeast Asia and sets out a framework for understanding the forces and trends that are driving jihadist extremism in the region. It provides a comprehensive examination of the organisational and operational capabilities of the major terrorist groups including Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Abu Sayyaf Group in Mindanao and the various groups associated with Malay Muslim separatist violence in southern Thailand. In each case, the nature and extent of pan-regional networks and connections are examined. Although these groups draw their rhetoric and ideology from the global jihadist movement, this ASPI paper shows that local ethnic and family ties remain a strong influence on group dynamics and linkages. As a result, the JI leadership in Indonesia has failed in its stated efforts to engineer a single zone of regional conflict. And the idea that sustained terrorist violence will achieve the political goal of a pan-Islamic caliphate across the region survives only in the most distorted and unrealistic assessments of the jihadi faithful. The structure and organisation of these groups may have changed, but the underlying threat of terrorism remains. In particular, the policy responses of national governments will have an important bearing on the future direction of ethno-religious conflicts in the region. Complacency will remain one of the biggest challenges we face in pursuing effective counter-terrorism policies in the region. Neighbourhood Watch makes a number of recommendations on the appropriate next steps in Australia’s regional counter-terrorism strategy including formalising the high-level political dialogue between ministers; paying closer attention to the enabling environment for terrorism in neighbouring countries such as Malaysia and Cambodia; leading a regional diplomatic campaign to encourage universal adoption of international counter-terrorism conventions; assisting Indonesia with further legal reforms; and providing more aid to the Indonesian education system to end the indoctrination and radicalisation in schools that are associated with terrorism