Estimated probabilities of black-backed woodpecker nests successfully fledging at least one young.

<p>(a) Mean posterior distribution and 95% credible intervals of the probability a black-backed woodpecker nest successfully fledged at least 1 young in habitat created by wildfire, prescribed (Rx) fire, and mountain pine beetle (MPB) infestations in the Black Hills, SD. This plot assumes nests in habitat created by wildfire and prescribed fire are both 2-years post-fire. (b) Mean posterior distribution and 95% credible intervals of the probability a nest successfully fledges at least 1 young as a function of time since fire. This figure assumes a nest in habitat created by wildfire, but the trend is similar in habitat created by prescribed fire.