Monthly probabilities of local transmission of chikungunya virus for select locations, December 2013–April 2014.

<p>Mean estimates (points) and 95% percentiles (lines) of predictions for the probability of introduced local transmission by month (December (D), January (J), February (F), March (M), and April (A)). <b>A.</b> Locations with reported autochthonous cases prior to May 2, 2104. The red points represent the month when cases were first reported. <b>B.</b> St. Lucia and Haiti had reported cases in early May. <b>C.</b> The eight locations with a predicted probability of local transmission greater than 0.5 in April and no history of cases as of May 16. BVI: British Virgin Islands; USVI: U.S. Virgin Islands.