Selection of optimal days to collect mortality measurements for traditional dose-response models.

<p>The red line traces a score for how well mortality at any given day represents infection estimated by the time-dependent model (refer to axis on the right). The score is given by , where Δ denotes the number of doses in the dataset, () represents the proportion infected in the Wolb⁻ (Wolb⁺) group subject to <i>D</i>CV dose <i>j</i>, and () the observed mortality proportion over time in the Wolb⁻ (Wolb⁺) group subject to <i>D</i>CV dose <i>j</i>. Gray vertical lines mark the optimal day to measure mortality for dose-response models (day 30, dash-dotted line) and the limits of the acceptable range (days 17 and 46). Dashed lines represent the Gamma distributions that describe old-age mortality, and black (blue) full curves refer to the Gamma distributions that describe infection-induced mortality in Wolb⁻ (Wolb⁺) (refer to axis on the left). Curves are the mean posterior probabilities and shaded areas represent the 95% CI.