Accuracy of probability estimates and confidence.

<p><i>(A)</i> Estimated probability that the next stimulus is A plotted against the Ideal Observer estimate. These probability estimates correspond to the transition probabilities p(A|A) or p(A|B), depending on whether the previous stimulus was A or B; both are pooled together. The dotted line corresponds to the identity. Error-bars and dots are the 75%, 50% and 25% percentiles across subjects. <i>(B)</i> Subjective confidence plotted against the Ideal Observer confidence. The steps of the subjective confidence scale were coded such that 0 corresponds to 'Not at all sure' and 1 to 'completely sure'. The Ideal Observer confidence is summarized as the log precision,-log(σ²), with σ² the variance of the estimated transition probability distribution. The fitted line is the average of the linear fits performed at the subject level. In A & B, equally-filled data bins were formed along the horizontal axis because the sequence of stimuli (and hence, estimates that can be inferred) differed across participants. Bins are used only for visualization and not for data analysis.