Comparison of two models of the distribution of the arroyo toad in southwestern California.

<p>This map was derived from two models for the distribution of the arroyo toad in southwestern California. Both models focused on streams and stream-side areas, and used relatively stable, long-term predictor variables characterizing aspects of soil, topography, and climate. The first model (potential model) only used those predictor variables and was designed to identify areas that may be suitable for the species based on intrinsic characteristics of the landscape. The second model (current model) also integrated more dynamic variables associated with current land cover conditions, and was designed to identify sites that may be suitable for the species, given constraints of land cover characteristics. This map represents the differences in predictions among the two models: black areas represent sites for which prediction of habitat did not change from the potential to the current model; blue represents sites predicted as potential but not current habitat, and yellow represents sites predicted as current but not potential habitat.