Integrating Nonnative Species in Niche Models to Prioritize Native Fish Restoration Activity Locations along a Desert River Corridor

<div><p></p><p>The efficient allocation of restoration resources is critical for the effective conservation of species. Here, we developed an ecological niche model to predict the response of three imperiled desert fishes to potential restoration actions along the longitudinal gradient of a desert river. The San Rafael River, Utah, is home to a complex of three endemic fishes (Flannelmouth Sucker <i>Catostomus latipinnis</i>, Bluehead Sucker <i>C. discobolus</i>, and Roundtail Chub <i>Gila robusta</i>; referred to as the “three species”). Like many Colorado River basin tributaries, the river is overallocated for human use, has experienced extensive physical degradation, and is now home to several nonnative fish species. To determine the factors most limiting to the three species, we first fit random forest models to fish CPUE and habitat data. We next combined these models with a longitudinal habitat survey and modeled nonnative species abundance to predict the continuous distribution of the three species in the lower San Rafael River, under current conditions and following simulated restoration. Nonnative fishes were important negative predictors of Flannelmouth Sucker and Bluehead Sucker relative abundance, and broadscale habitat variables were important positive predictors for all of the three species. Each of the three species was predicted to experience a significant increase in abundance following simulated eradication of nonnative fishes. Responses to simulated reach-specific habitat restoration were dependent on the reach restored, demonstrating that the choice of restoration location is critical. Nonnative species removal and restoring degraded reaches near already suitable habitat were predicted to be the most beneficial to the three species. Ecological niche models developed at the river scale, and incorporating both physical and biotic predictor variables, can provide spatially explicit information that appropriately parallels the spatial distribution of the needs of endemic fishes and can facilitate effective management and conservation decisions.</p><p>Received December 2, 2014; accepted February 20, 2015</p>