A. Predicted decline in a tsetse population over 12 months assuming imposed mortalities of 1–8%/day and (B) observed decline over six months on islands where tiny targets were deployed.

<p>A. For graph A, predicted declines were generated using the simulation model Tsetse Muse. For graph B, the Catch Index is the mean daily catch (+LSD) from traps for each month post-deployment of targets (Months 1–6) expressed as a percentage of the mean catch for the three months prior to deployment (Month 0). The pre-deployment mean catches were 3.1 (2.76–3.48, 95%CI) for Big Chamaunga, 28.2 (22.44–35.31) for Manga and 0.9 (0.79–1.12) for Magare. Lines show declines predicted over six months assuming imposed daily mortalities of 3–6%.