Model results for elimation and time to next case.

<p>Probability of elimination assuming no new cases are observed: WPV1 (A), WPV3 (C), cVDPV2 (E). Probability of observing a new case if elimination doesn’t occur, WPV1 (B), WPV3 (D), cVDPV2 (F). Fig prepared March 31, 2015 (black dashed line). In each panel, the horizontal axis origin is the time of the most recent case, the solid blue curve shows the scenario with mean <i>R</i>_eff = 1 and perfect surveillance, the green curve shows a less conservative scenario with mean <i>R</i>_eff < 1 and perfect surveillance, and the dashed blue curve shows a conservative scenario with mean <i>R</i>_eff = 1 and 50% surveillance sensitivity. For cVDPV2 (C,F), the orange curve depicts an optimistic scenario in which the mean <i>R</i>_eff is held at the lowest value ever observed and the standard deviation is reduced to one-fourth of its observed value.