Change in HIV prevalence at antenatal sites through the famine in relation to rural hunger.

<p>The independent variable is the proportion of rural households estimated from a humanitarian survey to be in need of food assistance in December 2002—March 2003 in the district surrounding antenatal sites. The observed values of the dependent variable are the ratio of the HIV prevalence in women attending antenatal clinics in 2003, after the worst of the famine, to the prevalence in 1999/2000, prior to the rapid rise in food prices. The fitted values are from multilevel log binomial regression (model 1, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0135108#pone.0135108.t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>). (A) Rural sites. The quadratic equation has a vertex at approximately 25%, implying little change in HIV around this level of hunger. (B) Non-rural sites (squares: cities, triangles: towns, open triangle: Nsanje, which is included in the analysis).