Projected outcomes of geographic and sexual risk-group prioritization.

<p><b>A)</b> Number of voluntary medical male circumcisions (VMMCs) needed to avert one HIV infection (<i>effectiveness</i>) by 2025 through geographic prioritization. <b>B)</b> Number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection by 2025 through risk-group prioritization. <b>C)</b> Expansion path curve showing the incremental change in total cost of the VMMC program relative to the incremental change in total number of HIV infections averted for each sexual risk-group targeted scenario. The blue line shows the expansion of the program with minimal diminishing of returns, and the red line shows the expansion of the program with considerable diminishing of returns.