A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - 2. Comparing variety trials with commercial productivity

Previous research has reported both agreements and serious anomalies in relationships between production attributes of sugarcane varieties in variety trials (VTs) and commercial production (CP). This paper examines VT and CP data for tonnes of cane per hectare (TCH) and sugar content (CCS). Data, analysed by REML, included 107 VTs and 54 CP mill years for 9 varieties from the mill districts of Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully for harvest years 1982-99. Important consistencies included high TCH of Q152, high CCS of Q117 and Q120, and low CCS of H56-752. Significant anomalies existed with respect to TCH for Q113, Q117, Q120, Q122, Q138, and H56-752 and to CCS for Q113 and Q124. Investigation of these anomalies was assisted by access to independent REML analyses of CP data for 65692 individual Tully cane blocks from 1988 to 1999 and by the knowledge of persons familiar with the preferential uses of varieties by farmers. Minor anomalies were due to limited year or mill area data. Q124 TCH was deemed to be decreased and its CCS increased by severe disease in Babinda CP in the extremely wet 1998 and 1999 seasons. Other serious anomalies have credible but unsubstantiated explanations. The most convincing, for Q113, Q117, Q138, and H56-752, are that these varieties were deployed unevenly with regard to late season harvesting, predominant use or avoidance on high fertility soils, or use confined to low fertility sandy soils, respectively. Uneven deployment results in confounding of these effects in the varietal CP statistics at mill area level. It is concluded that VTs cannot be enhanced to anticipate or evaluate most effects of uneven deployment. They give adequate predictions of relative CP performance for varieties deployed evenly across confounding influences. Routine analyses of individual block CP data would be useful and enhanced by addition of relevant information to the block records