Projected outcomes of geographic and risk-group prioritization.

<p><b>A)</b> Number of voluntary medical male circumcisions (VMMCs) needed to avert one HIV infection (<i>effectiveness</i>) by 2025 through geographic prioritization. <b>B)</b> Expansion path curve showing the incremental increase in total cost of the VMMC program relative to total number of HIV infections averted (<i>magnitude of impact</i>) for each geographic targeted intervention. <b>C)</b> Number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection by 2025 through risk-group prioritization. <b>D)</b> Expansion path curve showing the incremental increase in total cost of the VMMC program relative to total number of HIV infections averted for each risk-group targeted intervention. In both <b>B</b> and <b>D</b>, the blue line describes the expansion of the program with minimal diminishing of returns and the red line describes the expansion of the program with considerable diminishing of returns.