Maps of uncertainty in predictive posterior realisations.

<p>A) The population weighted index of uncertainty is calculated as in [<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004328#pntd.0004328.ref061" target="_blank">61</a>] and is a pragmatic representation of how important uncertainty in the predictive posteriors is likely to be. The uncertainty index is calculated by taking the log₁₀(<i>pop</i>₇₅ +1)×1/<i>P</i>_<i>class</i> where <i>pop</i>₇₅ is the population count for 1975 and <i>Ρ</i>_<i>class</i> is the probability of endemicity class assignment (<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004328#pntd.0004328.g004" target="_blank">Fig 4D</a>). B) Map of the variance of predictive posteriors. Higher values mean more diffuse posterior distributions and hence greater uncertainty in model estimates. The lowest uncertainty is found in pixels proximal to data locations. In both panels the red boundary denotes the OCP limits.