Estimating the percentage of mild and severe HFMD cases attributed to EV71 in China.

<p>(A) The number of specimens tested and the distribution of test results in each of the 31 provinces during 2010–2013. (B) Twenty-one scenarios were generated by making assumptions regarding the percentage of test-negative cases that were mild during 2010–2012 (the first branching point; annotated in red text) and the percentage of test-negative mild and severe/fatal cases that were EV71 during 2010–2013 (the second branching point; annotated in yellow and blue shades), respectively. The outcomes in the three scenarios colored in cyan were identical; hence, there were only 19 unique scenarios (labeled A–S). The base case (scenario A) is colored in pink. The sizes of the wedges illustrate the underlying assumptions and are not proportional to the actual percentages (the differences in serotype and severity distribution for severe/fatal cases between scenarios would not be apparent otherwise because the number of mild cases was much larger than that of severe/fatal cases).