Experiment 3: Controlled external-outcome conditions.

<p>Proportion of participants predicting a changed-dice outcome (gambler’s fallacy) on the critical trial in the controlled external-outcome conditions following a run of (A) even or (B) odd dice outcomes. Participants were tested in either the even-run or odd-run condition whereas those in experiment 1 were tested in both conditions. Participants are grouped according to whether they concurrently had a run of incorrect predictions (Dice+Incorrect), a run of correct predictions (Dice+Correct), or no runs of prediction outcomes (Dice only). Horizontal bars indicate the average baseline probability of predicting a changed-dice outcome for each group. Error bars represent ±1 standard error of the mean. * <i>p</i> < 0.05, ** <i>p</i> < 0.01, and *** <i>p</i> < 0.001 reflect Wilcoxon signed-rank test against baseline within each group or pairwise Chi-squared comparisons across groups.