Experiment 2: Controlled prediction-outcome conditions.

<p>Proportion of participants predicting a changed-dice outcome (gambler’s fallacy) on the critical trial in the controlled prediction-outcome conditions following a run of (A) incorrect or (B) correct outcomes. Participants are grouped according to whether they concurrently had a run of a dice outcome (Dice+Incorrect for A or Dice+Correct for B) or not (Incorrect only for A or Correct only for B). Horizontal bars indicate the average baseline probability of predicting a changed-dice outcome for each group. Error bars represent ±1 standard error of the mean. * <i>p</i> < 0.05, ** <i>p</i> < 0.01, and *** <i>p</i> < 0.001 reflect Wilcoxon signed-rank test against baseline within each group or pairwise Chi-squared comparisons across groups.