Distribution models of <i>Discocyrtus dilatatus</i> for current climate and projection on different Quaternary conditions.

<p>(a) Current climate; (b) Holocene climatic optimum (HCO, -6k); (c) Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, -21k); (d) Last inter-glacial (LIG, -130k). Maps (a) and (d) display the mean grid for the 30-replicates run, whereas (b) and (c) represent de averaged grid of the three GCM simulations (CCSM, MIROC and MPI, each one obtained as the mean grid for the 30-replicates run). Scale of suitability (logistic), from light to dark red: 0.4269 (threshold), 0.550, 0.660, 0.760. In the case of (b) and (c), the yellowish area around the prediction shows the maximal span of predictions with all three GCMs together. Training AUC for the 30-replicates run: average 0.969 (0.963–0.972). In maps (b) and (d) the approximate extent of the marine transgressions during -6k (+6 m) and LIG (+9 m) is also displayed. Abbreviations for Argentinean Provinces: Ju: Jujuy, Sa: Salta, T: Tucumán, Cat: Catamarca, Cba: Córdoba, SF: Santa Fe, Ch: Chaco, Fo: Formosa, Mis: Misiones, Cor: Corrientes, ER: Entre Ríos. Map was designed using free spatial data available at <a href="http://www.diva-gis.org/Data" target="_blank">http://www.diva-gis.org/Data</a>.