Determining Future Travel Behavior from Past Travel Experience and Perceptions of Risk and Safety

This study examined the influences of past international travel experience, types of risk associated with international travel, and the overall degree of safety felt during international travel on individuals' likelihood of travel to various geographic regions on their next international vacation trip or avoidance of those regions due to perceived risk. Information integration theory and protection motivation theory served as the theoretical framework for the study. A mail survey sent to 500 international travelers achieved a 48% response rate. Nonresponse bias was tested with telephone interviews. Data were analyzed using cross tabulations and logistic regression. Results revealed that past travel experience to specific regions both increases the intention to travel there again and decreases the intention to avoid areas, particularly risky areas. Perceived risks and safety were both found to be stronger predictors of avoiding regions than of planning to visit them