Ecological niche modeling as a conservation tool to predict actual and potential habitat for the bog turtle, Glyptemys muhlenbergii.

The bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) is faced with two principle threats: wetland habitat loss and, to a lesser degree, the illegal collection for pet trade demands. Current methodologies for bog turtle population discovery in the Southeast rely primarily on field surveys, which are labor intensive and fiscally exhaustive. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the role of geographic information science technologies, remote sensing and ecological niche modeling to predict potential bog turtle habitats in the Southeast. Environmental data were organized in a geographic information system. The Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production was used to develop an ecological niche model to identify additional habitat sites with the same signatures and potential capacity for support. The results showed the area under the curve as 97%; the model correctly predicted 98.889% of the data points; and the model predicted 1.67% of the total research area as potential habitat. Areas of highest prediction will be investigated for bog turtle occupancy by trained professionals. This information will be beneficial to researchers in setting conservation priorities for the bog turtle