Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Impor Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 1977-2015

This study aims to analyze the effect of soybean production, soybean consumption and exchange rate on soybean import in Indonesia. Using the time series data of 39 years (1977-2015), the data were obtained from the data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture, FAOASTAT and other relevant agencies related to this research. The analysis model used in this research is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that soybean production variables in the long term and short term have a negative and significant effect on soybean import in Indonesia; variable of soybean consumption in long term and short term have positive and significant influence to soybean import in Indonesia; and the exchange rate in the short term has no significant effect on soybean import in Indonesia, it shows that exchange rate is not the main factor affecting the increase or decrease of import volume of soybean in Indonesia in the short term. While in the long term exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on soybean import in Indonesia