A diagnostic tool to study long-term changes in estuary morphology

One method of studying the functional morphology of estuaries and the potential implications of developments is presented. The approach makes use of a hybrid modelling approach to predict the state of the estuary relative to its present day target steady state. The technique has now been applied to a number of UK estuaries, which allows the variability between systems to be illustrated. For one of the estuaries a range of modifications has been examined to try and identify how the functional behaviour of the system might be affected (e.g. remove flood banks) and these are discussed. Experience to-date has shown that this approach helps to develop an understanding of gross system behaviour and how this might change in the future. It does not provide detailed predictions for specific locations within the estuary, although the role of particular components in the system is highlighted.