Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

ABSTRACT. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to sitespecific response times and population characteristics.We would like to thank the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) for funding and supporting the project framing this research, named “Evaluación del Riesgo por tsunami en la costa de El Salvador (Fase I: Peligrosidad, Fase II: Vulnerabilidad y Riesgo)” and developed during the period 2009–2012; and the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) of El Salvador for our fruitful collaboration. We also thank the European projects NEARToWARN (Near-field Tsunami Warning) and ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe) for funding the first three authors’ research, and Roberto Minguez (IH Cantabria) for his guidance on optimization procedures