The Effects of Austerity on the Sustainability of the Greek Public Debt

The current Greek debt crisis has forced the Greek government to adopt austerity measures. In this paper, the most favourable debt reduction strategies among all the other strategies, for both Greece and its creditors will be examined. These strategies have been recently suggested in the economic world, to help achieve deficit reduction and enhance the growth rate of Greece. This is very important for the economic world - to avoid the insolvency of Greece and to find the best debt reduction strategy which is favourable for both the parties, so that the Greek public debt-to-GDP ratio can reach a level of sustainability within a reasonable timespan. In an endeavour to answer the research question, a simulation framework has been carried out based on the economic model as given by Cline, (2011). When using this economic model, g has been made endogenous and it is dependent on the extent of austerity. This has been taken into consideration while carrying out the simulation exercises for this paper. Furthermore, three different debt reduction strategies (the lowering of interest rates, debt write-off and increasing the primary surplus) have been implemented, considering the different scenarios of the economy, when executing these simulation exercises. After carrying out the simulation framework, it has been concluded that the further reduction of the interest rate would be the most favorable debt reduction strategy for both Greece and its creditors. This interest rate strategy would not only lower the Greek public debt-to-GDP to a sustainable level within a reasonable time period, but will also keep the growth rate positive in the long run during this period of weak economic recovery