Coastal Change in East Anglia: Results from the RegIS Project.

The objective of the Regional Impact Study (RegIS) was a holistic, stakeholder-led evaluation of the potential impacts of climate change, by developing and applying an integrated methodology foragricultural, hydrological, biodiversity and coastal-zone sectors (Holman & Loveland 2001). The methodology was applied to two contrasting regions: (1) East Anglia (Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk) and (2) North West England. The implications of the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios were analysed for the 2050s, assuming a constant 1990s socio-economic situation and two contrasting socio-economic storylines developed within RegIS. This paper focuses on the coastal aspects of RegIS in East Anglia, which considered increased flooding in coastal areas and possible changes in the distribution of coastal ecosystems (saltmarsh and coastal grazing marsh) (see Fig. 1). For more details see Nicholls & Wilson (2001). For each scenario combination, standard impact models are used to evaluate the potential impacts without any human adaptation to determine the worst-case impacts. The potential for adaptation is also evaluated, but in a more qualitative manner. Finally, the implications for long-term flood and coastal management and future research needs are considered