Umweltauswirkungen alternativer Energieversorgungsmöglichkeiten : eine Simulationsstudie mit besonderer Berücksichtigung gesellschaftlicher Einflussgrössen

The exponentiell ascent of the energy consumption has reduced the possibility to pollute air and Land in such a hand way, that the detrimental external effects of economic activities raust be regarded in energy modelling. That means to analyse the interdependent connections between the economic system and the environment and to picture the structure of the real system an a mathematical model. To do this System Dynamics modeln were developed. Beside the relevant technical variables also sociological variables such as "public pressure" or "lobby pressure" were regarded. So it was possible to Break open the "ceteris paribus"assumption of the constant sociological and political influences. The environmental effect of various policies to meet the energy demand were critically examined in simulation runs. lt was demonstrated that the pollution of the atmosphere will decrease in the beginning of the 80th. This is based an the implementation of a new energy technology with a lower pollution and an the other siele an the increasing amount of pollution control