Effects of climate on fine-scale spatial genetic structure in four alpine keystone species

Genetic responses to environmental changes can take place at different spatial scales. While the effect of climate on the wide-range distribution of genetic diversity has been the focus of several recent studies, studies of genetic responses to climate at local scales are relatively scarce. Fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) was investigated in four Alpine conifers (4 to 8 natural populations per species) in the Eastern Italian Alps. SNP assays were used to characterize SGS in Abies alba and Picea abies (384 SNPs), Larix decidua (528 SNPs) and Pinus cembra (768 SNPs). Significant SGS was found for 11 out of 25 populations tested, varying from Sp of 0.0018 in P. cembra to 0.0035 in Larix decidua. Several linear models were constructed to associate SGS with climate variables. Once corrected by confounding effects (e.g. differences of SGS across species due, for instance, to dispersal capability), the best model identified April minimum temperature and spring precipitation as the most relevant climatic variables associated with differences in SGS across populations. To study the potential effect of winter temperature in relation to plant physiology, two ecological indexes related to vegetation growth (chilling-degree-day, CDD, and freezing-degree-day, FDD) were also tested for association to SGS. A significant association was found between SGS and CDD across species. This study provides new insights on the expected genetic responses of four coniferous species to climate change at local scales, suggesting that climate change, through altering SGS, could also have relevant impacts in plant microevolutio