The impact of crime on the South African economic growth

Crime in South Africa has been escalating over the past few years. Crime affects all societies in South Africa. It occurs amongst the rich and the poor, in the suburbs as well as in the townships. Serious and violent crimes are reported in most of the national newspapers almost on daily basis. There is no single satisfactory answer as to the causes of crimes and its impact on the economy of South Africa. The aim of this research report is to assess the impact of crime in the South African economy. In order to formulate a conceptual and theoretical framework of the study, growth theories, namely neoclassical growth theory, Harrod-Domar growth model classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory were presented. Although all these growth theories relate to this study as crime cuts-across all sectors of the economy the endogenous growth theory was chosen as a theoretical framework on which to base this study. Endogenous growth theory deals with domestic absorption. Crime interferes with this absorption as it constitutes a cost to the economy. Firms lose profits whilst the opportunity cost of running prisons using a tax payers’ money continues to grow. This study is based on a quantitative research technique, using a vector error correction model (VECM) on a quarterly time series data over a period 2003 to 2011. The variables used to explain variations in economic growth over this period are crime, real interest rates, real exchange rates, unemployment and poverty. The findings of this study suggest that crime exerts a negative impact on economic growth in a long run in South Africa. However, this relationship is not statistically significant both in a short run and a long run. . However, no evidence of short run adjustments between crime and economic growth were found. There is a long run negative relationship between real interest rates and economic growth. This relationship is also statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. However, the relationship between real interest rates and economic growth is positive in a short run. This can be explained by the fact that high interest rates attract foreign investments causing a rise in economic growth but in a long run high interest rates dampen domestic investments thereby aggravating the unemployment problem. Rising unemployment is likely to lead to increase levels of crime in South Africa. The results also show that unemployment has a negative relationship with economic growth both in the short run and a long run. However this relationship is not statistically significant in a short run but in a long run. Poverty has a negative relationship with economic growth in a short run but a positive relationship in a long run. However, in both instances the relationship between poverty and economic growth is not statistically significant. Real exchange rate has a positive relationship with economic growth in a long run but a negative relationship in a short run. This relationship is statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. This means that the benefits of a weak currency in South Africa are realised in a long run. The implications of this study with regard to the variable of interest namely crime, is that crime constitutes a cost to the economy of South Africa. The econometric modelling used in this study suggests a negative relationship between crime and economic growth. This means that the problem of crime in South Africa goes beyond just simple counts on a number of offenses. Based on the findings of this study it is recommended that crime prevention is better than cure. Crime prevention should use a wide range of ideas and abilities found throughout the society. Community planning, neighbourhood action, juvenile advocacy, security planning, education and training are some of the ways in which crime actions can be mitigated in South Africa