HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATION OF A SEVERE BURA EVENT USING NONHYDROSTATIC NUMERICAL MODEL

Bura is strong and gusty wind common for the eastern Adriatic coast, with the most severe events beneath southern part of Velebit mountain. Due to traffic significance of the area and the fact that bura has strong impact on traffic, it is necessary to forecast the bura speed, onset and duration. A mesoscale nonhydrostatic numerical weather prediction model MM5 is employed in order to test and verify the model capabilities of forecasting wind speeds and spatial variabilities on very fine domain resolution of 1 km. During the winter 2003-2004 several bura events were recorded. The longest bura event, taking place from 22-25 December 2003 is analyzed. The model results are compared with the measured data taken from four automatic stations located on different altitudes along the slopes of Velebit. It is found that the model is able to predict onset duration and end of a bura episode with a reasonable accuracy. It is also found that the model is able to reproduce small scale bura variability