Cancer

BackgroundIn 2014 a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the U.S. to 80% by 2018; it is unknown if there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. We estimate the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy, and if there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need.MethodsThe Microsimulation Screening Analysis-colon (MISCAN-colon) model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the U.S. (2014\u20132040), assuming the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed.ResultsIf a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FITs and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy only screening program. Based on the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012 and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed.ConclusionsThe estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible U.S. population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity.20162017-08-17T00:00:00ZCC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United StatesP30 CA008748/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United StatesU01 CA199335/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States27200481PMC5559728801