Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken)

ObjectiveTo estimate and identify factors associated with incidence of all-cause end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among newly diagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.MethodsData from a national registry of treated ESRD were linked to data from a lupus registry of SLE patients who were newly diagnosed and living in Atlanta, Georgia, in 2002-2004 (median follow-up, 7.8 years). Cumulative incidence and incidence rates (ESRD treatment initiations per 1000 patient-years) were calculated, and age- and race-adjusted Poisson models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs).ResultsAmong 344 newly diagnosed SLE patients, 29 initiated ESRD over 2603.8 years of follow-up. Incidence rates were 13.8 (95% CI, 9.4-20.3) and 3.3 (95% CI, 0.8-13.0) per 1000 patient-years among black and white patients, respectively; corresponding 5-year cumulative incidence was 6.4% and 2.5%. Lupus nephritis documented prior to 2005, which occurred in 80% of those who progressed to ESRD, was the strongest risk factor for incident ESRD (IRR=6.7, 95% CI, 2.7-16.8; incidence rate=27.6 per 1000 patient-years). Results suggested that patients who were black vs. white (IRR=3.9, 95% CI, 0.9-16.4) or