MODELING A PLAN FOR SEAPORT INVESTMENTS THROUGH A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Veliki porast prometa kontejnerima u lukama Mediterana prisilila je većinu lokalnih vlasti da ponovo razmotre politiku razvoja infrastrukture kako bi se što bolje udovoljilo novim zahtjevima tržišta. Jedan od glavnih razloga tomu je i pomisao da učinkovitost morskih luka može dovesti i do ekonomskog razvoja onih područja koja su u to uključena, uz koristan učinak i na društvo u cjelini kao što je porast mogućnosti direktnog ili indirektnog zaposlenja. Ipak, nije lako procijeniti koliki je ekonomski udio, u smislu troškova, unutar takvog razvoja, budući da je u to uključen ogroman broj raličitih subjekata, a ekonomski se učinci protežu kroz čitav sustav. Rad je usmjeren na dinamičan pristup pri analizi luke malih kapaciteta. Prednost takve luke je mogućnost linearnog prikaza različitih odnosa koji se pojavljuju unutar različitih subjekata koji su u to uključeni, pri tome ističući više prednosti koje su u porastu, što je u suprotnosti s više tradicionalnim pristupima kao što su modeli troškova i koristi ili višekriterijalna tehnika. Autori u radu ne ograničavaju pristup samo na prikaz primjene sistemske dinamike na razvoj luke, već prikazuju i primjenu sistemske dinamike za analizu koja može biti provedena na politiku pratećih djelatnosti pomorskog prijevoza.The smashing growth of the containers’ traffic within the Mediterranean seaports has forced most of the local governments to rethink the development policies of infrastructures, so to better match the new market requests. The idea that the efficiency of seaports may also lead to an economical development of the involved area, with beneficial social effects, like a growing number of employment opportunities, as both a direct and a side effect, is amongst the main reasons. Nevertheless, the economical impact, in terms of cost, for such developments, can’t be easily estimated, because it involves a huge number of different subjects and economical effects spread amongst the system. This paper is focusing on a dynamical approach for analyzing a small sized seaport. Its main advantage is the ability to linearly depict the several relationships occurring amongst the different subjects involved, with increased advantages as opposite to more traditional approaches, like the “Costs-Benefits” model, or the “Multi-criteria” techniques. Herein, we don’t limit our approach to simply show how to apply the “System Dynamics” to a seaport, but we also show its application for the analysis which can be conducted to policy the supporting activities of maritime transportation. JEL Codes: H4