Comparison of Geopolitical Significance of Post Cold War Rounds of Enlargement of NATO

Proširenje NATO-a nakon hladnog rata, izvedeno u dva kruga s ukupno deset novih država primljenih u članstvo NATO-a, predstavlja ključan dobitak u izgradnji sigurnosne arhitekture post-hladnoratovske Europe, te je najznačajniji sigurnosni dobitak za Europu nakon raspada Varšavskog ugovora i SSSR-a. Dva kruga proširenja NATO-a bila su vrlo različita po svojem teritorijalnom opsegu, regionalnoj pripadnosti, trenutnim okolnostima unutar NATO-a, te utjecaju na geopolitičke odnose u Europi i geostrateške odnose SAD-a i Rusije. Prethodili su proširenju Europske unije na deset postkomunističkih država Europe. Nakon 11. rujna 2001., uspješna izvedba drugog kruga proširenja NATO-a postala je jedan od strateških ciljeva u borbi protiv terorizma SAD-a i njegovih saveznika. Proširenje je značajno promijenilo odnose u NATO-u i geopolitičku ravnotežu u Europi, šireći zonu sigurnosti i stabilnosti na istok i jugoistok Europe. Utjecaj NATO-a se širi na granične regije Europe, te prelazi i njihove granice. Treći krug proširenja najavljen je na summitu u Bukureštu, tijekom kojeg su Hrvatska i Albanija pozvane da se priključe NATO-u. Treći krug proširenja vjerojatno će uključivati i Makedoniju, ako ta država s Grčkom riješi spor oko imena. Ako bi NATO u članstvo uključio države iz regije Zapadnog Balkana, imao bi još značajniju ulogu u stabilizaciji ovog nestabilnog prostora, posebno u rješavanju problema koji neovisnost Kosova predstavlja za stabilnost regije. Budući strateški izazovi europskoj sigurnosti bit će vezani uz odnose NATO-a i Rusije, posebno uz ambicije NATO-a u istočnoj Europi i u regiji Kavkaza. Ako NATO odluči u članstvo pozvati Gruziju i Ukrajinu, možemo očekivati rusku reakciju, koja bi mogla dovesti do sveprisutne i dugotrajnije nestabilnosti velikog dijela Europe, ali i dijela Euroazije.In the Post-Cold War era, NATO enlargements occurred in two rounds. Ten new member states joined NATO. These enlargements represent a major asset to the building of new security architecture of the Post-Cold War Europe, after the dissolution of Warsaw Treaty and the USSR. Two rounds of NATO enlargement were very different by their territorial reach, regional determination, current circumstances inside the Alliance and the influence on geopolitical relations in Europe and the US-Russia geostrategic relations. NATO enlargements were precursory to the EU enlargements on ten post-communist European states. After the September 11, successful implementation of the second round of NATO enlargement became one of the strategic objectives in struggle against terrorism, led by the USA and its allies. The enlargement significantly changed relations within NATO as well as the very geopolitical balance in Europe. The security and stability zone expanded to the East and Southeast of Europe. NATO’s influence has also spread over the border regions of Europe, even transcending those borders. Third round of NATO enlargement was announced at the NATO summit in Bucharest during which Croatia and Albania were invited to join the Alliance. The third round of NATO enlargement will probably refer to Macedonia, if it settles a dispute over its name with Greece. Given that NATO is to include the Western Balkans states, its role of a stabilization force will become even more important in this unstable area, particularly under the aspect problem of solutions to the problems connected with the independence of Kosovo and its consequences to the stability of the region. Future strategic challenges to the European security will be tied to the NATO-Russia relations, regarding the NATO’s future ambitions in the Eastern Europe and Caucasus region. If NATO decides to invite Georgia and Ukraine to become its members, we can expect Russian reaction, which could lead to the period of whole scale and long-term instability in a large part of Europe, but also in a part of Eurasia