STRUCUTURAL CHANGES IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY OF CROATIA 1995-2000

Rast izvoza i konkurentnosti na svjetskom tržištu jedan je od indikatora uspješnosti restrukturiranja post-socijalističkih privreda. Izvoz robe u Hrvatskoj je, međutim, u cijelom razdoblju 1995-.-2000. bio izrazito stagnantan. U ovome radu analiziiaju se razni faktori koji su rnogli utjecati na tu pojavu. Pažnja je usmjerena na kretanje troškova poslovanja i profitabilnost firmi u prerađivačkoj industriji, obilježja investiranja, razvitak malih i srednjih firmi te utjecaj politike tečaja. Autor zaključuje, da je u promatranom razdoblju nesumnjivo bio prisutan proces restrukturiranja u prerađivačkoj industriji Hrvatske. No, u uvjetima niskih investicija, dobici u rastu proizvodnosti rada proizlazili su najvećim dijelom iz racionalizacije broja zaposlenih. Visok rast troškova proizvodnje izazvan uvođenjem novog poreznog sustava (PDV) u 1998. godini, što je pratila ekspanzija javnih rashoda i gotovo eksplozija nelikvidnosti u 1999., nije bio kompenziran odgovarajućim smanjenjem troškova rada. Istovremeno, visoko liberalizirani uvoz uz de facto fiksni tečaj i konsekventni rast precijenjenosti domaće valute, osiguravali su stabilnost cijena. U takvim uvjetima u prerađivačkoj industriji su bili stalno prisutni gubici koji su u pojedinim godinama i više nego dvostruko nadmašivali dobit. U radu se predlaže napuštanje režima fiksnog tečaja i prihvaćanje asimetričnih intervencija kao oblika "puzajućeg pojasa" (crawling band), koji bi uz odgovarajuću podršku monetarne politike, politike dohodaka i daljih napora oko uravnoteženja proračuna, mogao poboljšati izvoznu konkurentnost privrede.Increase of competitiveness on the world market and growth of exports are significant signs of success in the process of restructuring in the post-socialist economies. In Croatia, however, exports of goods were explicitly stagnant in the entire period 1995- 2000. In this paper various factors are investigated which can be responsible for such an outcome. Attention is aimed at: costs of production and profitability of firms in manufacturing industry, features of investments, development of small and medium size enterprises and foreign-exchange regime. Author comes to the conclusion that process of restructuring in manufacturing industry in Croatia was present in the period under observation. However, given low investment activity, gains in productivity were obtained mainly as a result of reduction in the redundant labor force. A rise in costs triggered by introduction of the VAT system and subsequent expansion of public expenditure in 1998, as well as new costs stemming from an explosion of arrears in 1999, have not been offset by analogous decrease in the unit labor cost. At the same time, due to high liberalization of imports and de facto fixed foreign-exchange regime and consequent overvaluation of domestic currency, high stability of prices was sustained. In such circumstances losses in the firms in manufacturing industry were continuously present, being in some years more than twofold greater than profits. Conclusion is that the fixed foreign-exchange regime should be abandoned and a kind of a crawling band with asymmetric interventions could be adopted. With a support of an appropriate monetary and wage policy and further efforts for public expenditure restraints, competitiveness of Croatian exports on the world market could be substantially enhanced